Ukraine - Superthread

[daftandbarmy]

The 93rd Brigade, near Izium

 

[Booter]

are they believing their own propaganda?

Russian news and politics are for the Russians first and foremost. Because Putin has been the font from which all the extras flow- and has enjoyed popularity his approval is their career…what he supplies is what goes.

It was the same during the second Chechen war- and it was the same when he was trying to deal with internal politics and terrorism (often also linked to Chechens)…or dealing with their submarine running aground and killing all those sailors for example.

Tell Russia a story, the rest of the world be damned. They are riding on the nazi element. Because nazis are bad, we can all get behind that. No matter how stupid the accusations look to Say…Israel.

 

[Haggis]

The Russian army stopped the APU's attempt to cross the river. The battle unfolded on the Seversky Donets River, presumably near the village of Petrovskoye, where the Ukrainian army created a pontoon crossing and tried to cross the river. Russian motorized skirmishers engaged in battle and adjusted artillery fire on the guided crossing and the AFU equipment sheltering in the forest. As a result of the battle, the ferry was destroyed and drowned. The Ukrainian troops who managed to cross were destroyed by artillery fire.

I think you were reading your map upside down.

 

[McG]

Bleak picture painted for Russian position.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1525704460214878208

 

[McG]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1525803115848642567

 

[The Bread Guy]

RUS state media, stirring the divisiveness pot ....

 

[The Bread Guy]

...

Turkey may oppose Finland and Sweden joining Nato, Erdogan says

Any potential application by Finland or Sweden to join the alliance must be ratified by all 30 member states.

yle.fi

A bit more detail on the cost of Turkey's "yes" -- this, from a senior TUR official to Reuters ....

... Kalin said the militant Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) - designated a terrorist organisation by Turkey, the United States and the European Union - was fund-raising and recruiting in Europe and its presence is "strong and open and acknowledged" in Sweden in particular. "What needs to be done is clear: they have to stop allowing PKK outlets, activities, organisations, individuals and other types of presence to...exist in those countries," Kalin said ...

Another reminder from yesterday ...

At NATO meet, Turkey criticises Swedish and Finnish support for PKK

Turkey's foreign minister criticised on Saturday the "unacceptable and outrageous" support that prospective new NATO members Sweden and Finland give to the PKK Kurdish militant group, potentially complicating the alliance's enlargement.

www.reuters.com

... with a slightly more "glass is 1/2 full" take from TUR pro-govt media

Turkey open to NATO talks with Finland, Sweden despite PKK support

Turkey has not shut the door on Sweden and Finland joining NATO and is willing to negotiate with the countries if they agree to clamp down on domestic...

www.dailysabah.com

 

[McG]

You're right. But...

Another possibility

The US and the UK positions could be undermined though, as could the Canadian, Australian and New Zealand ones, through appeals to the anti-colonialists, socialists and isolationists in the domestic populations. Even if it doesn't stop shipments to Ukraine it may limit them and continue to prevent boots on the ground and a no-fly zone. For example.

As I stated, Russian disinformation is definitely still targeting the 5 eyes nations, as the existence of the Soldier35 account demonstrates. I also have no doubt that it is targeting disaffected aboriginal and minority communities. But, Russia knows it gets much more mileage by feeding, agitating, and amplifying the disaffected wings of political left & right. This has been well documented by several think-tanks, journalists, and academics and it is illustrated here:

RUS state media, stirring the divisiveness pot ....
View attachment 70752

 

[The Bread Guy]

... it is targeting disaffected aboriginal and minority communities. But, Russia knows it gets much more mileage by feeding, agitating, and amplifying the disaffected wings of political left & right ...

Yup - and it all started well before the #NotAWar began, for sure.

 

[ueo]

You're probably right.

What track record? They have one?

 

[Kirkhill]

In a less jocular mode

THE EARLY YEARS – A SHORT HISTORY OF CANADA’S DEFENCE ATTACHÉ PROGRAM 1945-1965​

by Christopher Kilford

Colonel Christopher Kilford, CD, PhD, is currently employed as the Canadian Defence Attaché in Turkey, with cross-accreditation to Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkmenistan. In 2009, he completed his PhD at Queen’s University. His dissertation addressed the roles that militaries play in the developing societies, and focused upon Canada’s military assistance to the developing world during the post-colonial period

http://www.journal.forces.gc.ca/vol12/no4/page44-eng.asp

A longish article.

Anybody have any good links to current military attache type programs and the local gathering of Open Source Intelligence? Not spy work. Just being on the ground and observing that which is to be openly seen and heard. Is Global Affairs and/or DND actively engaged in that field? Are they engaged in all countries? Or just the major allies and enemies?

Thread split might be interesting.

 

[MilEME09]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1525868594713833472

Some estimates say BTGs average 450 to 600 personal. So at max Russia may have around 60k combat troops in Ukraine right now. Those are not winning numbers when Ukraine just announced they are expanding their forces to 1 million thanks to western kit.

 

[suffolkowner]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1525868594713833472

Some estimates say BTGs average 450 to 600 personal. So at max Russia may have around 60k combat troops in Ukraine right now. Those are not winning numbers when Ukraine just announced they are expanding their forces to 1 million thanks to western kit.

Why would they run BTG's at 50% instead of combining them? Just a bunch of IFV's with no dismounts?

 

[MilEME09]

Why would they run BTG's at 50% instead of combining them? Just a bunch of IFV's with no dismounts?

The Russian BTG is vehicle heavy with only a few hundred discounts. Why they aren't merging units, I have no idea but at full strength they would have 105k combat troops in Ukraine, with the losses of almost a BTG of vehicles every couple days, I doubt this is the case. Russia seems intent on pushing their offensive with degraded forces that we would consider no longer combat effective.

My only guess is this partially has to do with their centralized command structure and an unwillingness to merge units by senior commanders who won't give up their own command to another.

 

[rmc_wannabe]

I'm not too much of an expert of Soviet/Russian doctrine, but how much are they able to water the broth before its no longer soup? Are they running out of vehicles faster than pers to crew them, or vice versa? When does it become more effective to consolidate?

 

[AlexanderM]

Putin coup is underway and 'impossible to stop,' says Ukraine's military intelligence chief

 

[Kirkhill]

Why would they run BTG's at 50% instead of combining them? Just a bunch of IFV's with no dismounts?

Sheer idle speculation on my part and playing with numbers ...

If we believe Wiki and take it as a starting point

As of August 2021, Russia had about 170 BTGs.[3] Each BTG has approximately 600–800 officers and soldiers,[4] of whom roughly 200 are infantrymen, equipped with vehicles typically including roughly 10 tanks and 40 infantry fighting vehicles.

An original BTG had 600 to 800 soldiers of which it seems 200 were infantry. The infantry were mounted in 40 IFVs. That is about 5 infantry for each vehicle. Assume that all of those are dismounts and that the crews are separate. So each vehicle has 5 dismounts.

The dismounts are either in the vehicle or on the ground.

If we assume that half the IFVs have been destroyed and that the dismounts were destroyed with the IFVs then each BTG is down to 100 rifles. Or a single company.
And of that I guess it wouldn't be out of line to suggest that 1/3 to 1/2 of that number has been killed, wounded or captured on their feet during assaults.

So a Russian Battalion Tactical Group might be able to raise 40 rifles, or basically a large platoon. They have more than their fair share of artillery but their armoured support is heavily depleted. It is not at all unlikely that their original CO is dead.

So now when you are talking about 150 BTGs you are not talking about 150 Reinforced Battalions it would be more realistic to talk of 150 Reinforced Companies, or possibly even 150 Reinforced Platoons.

At the start of the Notawar the Russians were talking about 168 Battalions being equal to 11 or 12 Armies or 14 or so Battalions to an Army.

In the west 14 Battalions is a Division, or at best a small Corps - or a Canadian Army.

14 Companies is a Brigade in the West
14 Platoons is a Battalionish.

So they are now down to a small Brigade or a large Battalion per Army. That is 12 Brigades or possibly even 12 Battalions.

If looking at the picture in those terms then the Russians have got a lot of Artillery, a lot of old tanks, poor logistics and are trying to take Eastern Ukraine with something close to the combined forces of the RCR, the PPCLI and the R22R. They may also have the Royal Australian Regiment strength available.

I think it is just too late in the game for them to do anything other than more of the same until somebody tells them to quit.

 

[suffolkowner]

The Russian BTG is vehicle heavy with only a few hundred discounts. Why they aren't merging units, I have no idea but at full strength they would have 105k combat troops in Ukraine, with the losses of almost a BTG of vehicles every couple days, I doubt this is the case. Russia seems intent on pushing their offensive with degraded forces that we would consider no longer combat effective.

My only guess is this partially has to do with their centralized command structure and an unwillingness to merge units by senior commanders who won't give up their own command to another.

Seems like another own goal to me as they struggle in Kharkiv and pushing forward in Donetsk.

Putin coup is underway and 'impossible to stop,' says Ukraine's military intelligence chief

I'll believe it when i see it

 

[KevinB]

The Russian BTG is vehicle heavy with only a few hundred discounts. Why they aren't merging units, I have no idea but at full strength they would have 105k combat troops in Ukraine, with the losses of almost a BTG of vehicles every couple days, I doubt this is the case. Russia seems intent on pushing their offensive with degraded forces that we would consider no longer combat effective.

My only guess is this partially has to do with their centralized command structure and an unwillingness to merge units by senior commanders who won't give up their own command to another.

Russian has pumped over 80k troops into action as replacements - hence why I tend to think most of the OS RUAF casualty numbers are on the low side.

I asked that same question elsewhere as to me right now the Russian BTG’s look more like a CAF PRes unit on parade than a fighting formation.

It makes sense to me that they would have an amalgamation of BTG’s to ensure the Inf and Armored sections of those units are as up to strength as can be. The excess tube Arty can be added to the BTG as a ‘bonus’ or used at higher level than the Battalion Group.

I guess having a paper force briefs better back home…

 

[dapaterson]

Employee of the month.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1525903441704501254