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Ukraine - Superthread

The Bread Guy

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The average Ukrainian, they want a strong leader, order, stability and a paycheck - that's pretty much it. Its the elites in Lvov and Kiev and maybe Odessa and Kharkov who want stronger ties to the West/EU. So, if someone comes along and gives them the 4 things I mentioned earlier and they happen to be more aligned with the Kremlin, the majority won't care.
True - it would depend on how much of Ukraine would be left unoccupied and what the preferences are in those areas.

If the Russians were crazy enough to push as far west as they could, the remaining Ukrainians in unoccupied Ukraine may not be so keen to elect a Russian-y leader. May even double down on pro-West, given their new neighbour.
 

Czech_pivo

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True - it would depend on how much of Ukraine would be left unoccupied and what the preferences are in those areas.

If the Russians were crazy enough to push as far west as they could, the remaining Ukrainians in unoccupied Ukraine may not be so keen to elect a Russian-y leader. May even double down on pro-West, given their new neighbour.
Yes, true, but if Kiev is gone, then the rest of the country is not viable. The Poles would be clambering for Lvov and area to be returned to them.

There is still some smoldering embers of Religious tensions in that area. Catholic Poles vs Orthodox Ukrainians with the Greek Catholic Ukrainians caught in the middle.

If we didn't fully understand the religious/historical angle of the civil war in Yugoslavia, then we will have difficulty understand these same issues in that area of Europe. Many a Pole still longs for the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth and its vast territory to be resurrected.
 

daftandbarmy

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Yes, true, but if Kiev is gone, then the rest of the country is not viable. The Poles would be clambering for Lvov and area to be returned to them.

There is still some smoldering embers of Religious tensions in that area. Catholic Poles vs Orthodox Ukrainians with the Greek Catholic Ukrainians caught in the middle.

If we didn't fully understand the religious/historical angle of the civil war in Yugoslavia, then we will have difficulty understand these same issues in that area of Europe. Many a Pole still longs for the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth and its vast territory to be resurrected.

Why fight your way into Kiev via a frontal assault when you can sneak in the back door via Transnistria? If you're going to 'Balkan', you need to Balkan like a Boss-ski ;)

Transnistria, officially the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR),https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transnistria#cite_note-10 is an unrecognised breakaway state located in the narrow strip of land between the river Dniester and the Moldovan–Ukrainian border that is internationally recognised as part of Moldova. Its capital and largest city is Tiraspol. Transnistria has been recognised by only three other unrecognised or partially recognised breakaway states: Abkhazia, Artsakh, and South Ossetia.[9] Transnistria is designated by the Republic of Moldova as the Administrative-Territorial Units of the Left Bank of the Dniester (Romanian: Unitățile Administrativ-Teritoriale din stînga Nistrului),[10] or Stînga Nistrului ("Left Bank of the Dniester").[11][12][13]

The region's origins can be traced to the Moldavian Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic which was formed in 1924 within the Ukrainian SSR. During World War II, the Soviet Union took parts of the Moldavian ASSR, which was dissolved, and of the Kingdom of Romania's Bessarabia to form the Moldavian Soviet Socialist Republic in 1940. The present history of the region dates to 1990, amidst the disintegration of the Soviet Union, when the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Soviet Socialist Republic was established in hopes that it would remain within the Soviet Union should Moldova seek unification with Romania or independence, the latter occurring in August 1991. Shortly afterwards, a military conflict between the two parties started in March 1992 and was concluded by a ceasefire in July of the same year.

 

Czech_pivo

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Russian courts accidently say Russian troops are in Ukraine. Ooops
Someone just bought themselves a one-way ticket to a Gulag in the Kolyma. Lovely this time of year.
 

The Bread Guy

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China: What Russia said ...
Russian officials say Chinese President Xi Jinping supports Russia’s campaign to stop the expansion of the NATO alliance to the east.

Xi spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday by video call. Putin’s foreign policy advisor Yuri Ushakov said Putin spoke about “threats to Russia’s national interests from the U.S. and the NATO bloc.” He said they continually move military weapons and structures close to Russia’s borders.

Russian officials said Putin also told Xi about his recent talk with U.S. President Joe Biden.

Putin has been demanding guarantees that NATO, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, will not expand to Ukraine or to deploy troops or weapons there. In recent weeks, however, Western nations have made diplomatic efforts to prevent a possible invasion of Ukraine by Russia. Russia has denied it has such plans. But thousands of Russian troops are reportedly deployed on Russia’s border with Ukraine.

The Russian leader told Xi that there was a need to hold talks with NATO and the United States to negotiate security guarantees ...
... Russia: here you go, then
The Kremlin said Thursday that Russia submitted draft documents outlining security arrangements it wants to negotiate with the United States and its NATO allies amid s piraling tensions over Ukraine.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said a senior Russian envoy stood ready to immediately depart for talks in a neutral country on the proposal.

Peskov told reporters that Russian President Vladimir Putin may have another call with U.S. President Joe Biden before the year’s end to discuss the security issue, but he said it hasn’t been agreed to yet.

In a video call with Putin last week, Biden voiced concern about a buildup of Russian troops near Ukraine and warned him that Russia would face “severe consequences” if Moscow attacked its neighbor.

Putin has denied plans of launching an invasion and reversed the conversation by prodding Western leaders to provide legally binding guarantees precluding NATO’s expansion to Ukraine and the deployment of the alliance’s weapons there, calling such actions a “red line” for Moscow ...
 

Czech_pivo

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Some interesting news just out from the Polish/Belarus border area.

Polish soldier reportedly crosses border into Belarus claiming asylum​



EDIT - I'm also adding in this article. It will give you all a sense of the inter-connectivity that is occurring between Poland and Ukraine. Similar numbers for certain exist in the Czech Republic (I know this from first hand experience when I used to work/live there) and in Slovakia.

Number of Ukrainians With Valid Residence Permits in Poland Surpasses 300,000

 

daftandbarmy

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Satellite images spot an additional 6 Battalion tactical groups heading for Ukraine. Each of these are approximately 900 personal, and self sufficient.

This was a good observation I thought:

“The whole world now knows that there is a war in Ukraine,” said Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of Ukraine’s national security and defense council.
“Before this, everyone thought that everything is fine here, but, in fact, the hot phase of war with Russia never stopped,” he added. “It’s basically been going on since February 2014.”

 

CBH99

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This was a good observation I thought:

“The whole world now knows that there is a war in Ukraine,” said Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of Ukraine’s national security and defense council.
“Before this, everyone thought that everything is fine here, but, in fact, the hot phase of war with Russia never stopped,” he added. “It’s basically been going on since February 2014.”

I’m pretty sure everybody knew there was a war happening in Ukraine against Russia. I don’t many people thought “Everything is fine…”

If they did, what rock were they living under?
 

The Bread Guy

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Food for thought: as long as NATO says they'll help, but don't really, and doesn't do anything to let Ukraine into NATO, does Russia even need to invade?
 
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