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General Election: Oct 21, 2019

larry Strong

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Somehow I don't see this happening.....

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/andrew-scheer-staying-on-leader-1.5330762

Shared as per.....

Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer said today he has no plans to resign, and vowed instead to stay at the helm of his party and take another swing at defeating Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in the next election.

Speaking to reporters in Regina this morning, Scheer said he had hoped for better results but is happy with the "significant gains" the Conservatives achieved in this election.

"We point to the fact that we won the popular vote, a million more votes for our party last night than than ever before, and that we have the strongest opposition in Canadian history," Scheer said. "More people voted for me and the Conservative platform than any other party."

The party won roughly 300,000 more votes last night than its previous best, in 2011 — not the 1 million Scheer cited.

"This was the first step in a process to replace Justin Trudeau's government ... we'll take the next few days to prepare the ground work for the next campaign. We'll continue to prepare and fight for when the government falls," Scheer said.

Scheer managed to bolster his party's popular support thanks in part to lopsided victories in Alberta and Saskatchewan, where the party achieved record results.

Andrew Scheer falls short — but vows Conservatives will be ready next time
The Conservatives faltered in the rest of the country, failing to make significant inroads in Atlantic Canada, Quebec or Ontario.

In fact, the Conservative Party won more votes in Alberta alone than it received in Quebec, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador combined.

Compared to 2011, when the Conservatives won a convincing majority government, the party achieved lower popular vote support levels in every province except Alberta and Saskatchewan.

In once solidly blue ridings like Central Nova and South Shore-St. Margaret's in Nova Scotia, and Milton in Ontario, the Liberal candidates easily bested their Tory opponents.

Despite a promising start to the campaign in Quebec, the Conservatives actually lost seats in that province.

The party emerged as a starkly more regional entity, with its support largely concentrated in Western Canada. There, the party's base turned out in record numbers, thanks in part to hugely unpopular Liberal policies that are seen as constituting an attack on the country's oil and gas sector.

While Scheer promised to stay on as leader, the choice ultimately rests with the Conservative Party membership.

Under the party's constitution, if it fails to form a government — and if the leader has not yet formally signalled an intention to resign — then delegates can vote at the next party convention to hold a leadership race.

The party launches a leadership race if more than 50 per cent of members at the party convention vote in favour of one. The next Conservative convention happens in 2020.



Cheers
Larry
 

Good2Golf

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VinceW said:
We tried and tried already the Reform party was created to bring Western values on the East and we were rejected they made fun of us and belittled us Harper made it for awhile but now any sign of the Conservatives that is influenced by the West is again rejected by the East we’ve done all we can do it’s time to move forward the West East political difference isn’t going to break ever.
Western populism is now for independence and we’ll succeed.

Reform (and Alliance) was seen by everyone else in non-Wild Rose country as extreme and close-minded right.

Harper reneging in his deal with Peter MacKay to share leadership in due course, once he comfortably had subsumed the PC support that gave home the full majority, was a dick move, that the rest of Canada didn’t forget. Try to romanticize “The West” bringing it’s warm, open-style heartiness and value based approach Eastward is to totally fail to understand why, for all the decent things that Harper did, like implement fiscal responsibility, the majority of people eschewed their mean-spirited, sanctimonious forcing of the fundamentalist elements of the CPC/Alliance/Reform (far removed from the good ‘ole PC center-to-right base) and took Harper for what he was...a guy who got it 75% right, but lost it with pushing for the last 25% that the citizenry wasn’t willing to give him. It was poorly played leading up to 2015, and the results proved it then, and the milquetoast Scheer proved it again in 2019...and this coming from pretty much a life PC supporter who lost a viable option from 2015 onwards. Scheer offered nothing for the disenfranchised middle of the road (overlapping Blue Liberals) ex-PC crowd. CPC is seen East of Weyburn, SK as Reform by another name. Far right, not having tolerance to represent slightly-left-of-centre to centre-right.

‘Conservatives’, for whatever those are these days, are doomed until a more moderate ‘fiscally conservative, socially progressive’ tone is championed.

Scheer saying he’ll fight on demonstrates precisely why he was so ably capable of snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory in the election. It’s not at all that others don’t get the Western Prairies (AB/SK not w BC), but that the “All (including up to fringe right) or Nothing” brand of conservatism is old and falls flat in today’s Canada. 

:2c:

Regards
G2G
 

Jarnhamar

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Quite irritated Scheer decided to stay on.

Is there a way the party can force picking a new leader?
 

dapaterson

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Smallest vote margins - a twitter thread by David Akin:

https://twitter.com/davidakin/status/1186800932824244224

Smallest margins of #elxn43 victory - raw votes:
1 Yukon #LPC @LarryBagnell  72
2 Richmond Hill #LPC @MajidJowhari  112
3 Québec #LPC @jyduclos 215
4 Kitchener--Conestoga #LPC @votetimlouis 273
5 Hochelaga #LPC @SorayaMartinezF 319
6 Port Moody--Coquitlam Nelly Shin #CPC 333


Looking at them: Yukon and the two Ontario ridings would have been taken by the CPC if all PPC votes had gone their way.  The two Quebec ridings had the BQ in close second places.

And in BC, it was a close 3 way race, with the PC candidate edging her way ahead of the Liberal and NDP - all were around 30%.
 

FSTO

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Jarnhamar said:
Quite irritated Scheer decided to stay on.

Is there a way the party can force picking a new leader?

Yep. If enough party members want him out, he's gone.
 

Jarnhamar

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SNC-Lavalin Stock Price Soars After Trudeau Win
14% in a day.  :eek:rly:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/m.huffingtonpost.ca/amp/entry/snc-lavalin-stock-price_ca_5daf435ce4b0422422ccf6be/
 

dapaterson

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It's not East / West; it's urban vs everything else.


https://twitter.com/j_mcelroy/status/1186806312241250304

There are 65 federal ridings in Canada with at least 2,500 people per square kilometre.

The Conservative Party didn't win a single one.

There are 123 ridings in this country with between 150 and 2,500 people per square kilometre, from Etobicoke North to Durham. 

The Liberals won 64 of them, the Conservatives 41.

And there are 150 ridings in this country with fewer than 150 people per square kilometre (symmetry!).

The Conservatives won 82 seats, the Liberals 40. 

Tired: Canada's East vs. West divide.
Wired: Canada Urban vs. Everything Else divide.
 

VinceW

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Good2Golf said:
Reform (and Alliance) was seen by everyone else in non-Wild Rose country as extreme and close-minded right.

Harper reneging in his deal with Peter MacKay to share leadership in due course, once he comfortably had subsumed the PC support that gave home the full majority, was a dick move, that the rest of Canada didn’t forget. Try to romanticize “The West” bringing it’s warm, open-style heartiness and value based approach Eastward is to totally fail to understand why, for all the decent things that Harper did, like implement fiscal responsibility, the majority of people eschewed their mean-spirited, sanctimonious forcing of the fundamentalist elements of the CPC/Alliance/Reform (far removed from the good ‘ole PC center-to-right base) and took Harper for what he was...a guy who got it 75% right, but lost it with pushing for the last 25% that the citizenry wasn’t willing to give him. It was poorly played leading up to 2015, and the results proved it then, and the milquetoast Scheer proved it again in 2019...and this coming from pretty much a life PC supporter who lost a viable option from 2015 onwards. Scheer offered nothing for the disenfranchised middle of the road (overlapping Blue Liberals) ex-PC crowd. CPC is seen East of Weyburn, SK as Reform by another name. Far right, not having tolerance to represent slightly-left-of-centre to centre-right.

‘Conservatives’, for whatever those are these days, are doomed until a more moderate ‘fiscally conservative, socially progressive’ tone is championed.

Scheer saying he’ll fight on demonstrates precisely why he was so ably capable of snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory in the election. It’s not at all that others don’t get the Western Prairies (AB/SK not w BC), but that the “All (including up to fringe right) or Nothing” brand of conservatism is old and falls flat in today’s Canada. 

:2c:

Regards
G2G

Reform was popular everywhere in Western Canada they weren’t exclusively popular in Alberta the East is going to change for us as much as we’re going to change for them time to move on when we’re seen as the problem and a nuisance to the Eastern part of the country we’re not going to take their abuse no more.
 

Altair

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VinceW said:
Reform was popular everywhere in Western Canada they weren’t exclusively popular in Alberta the East is going to change for us as much as we’re going to change for them time to move on when we’re seen as the problem and a nuisance to the Eastern part of the country we’re not going to take their abuse no more.
I find this amusing,  because in my opinion, it is rather misplaced.

There are 5 parties in parliament.

3 aggressively anti pipeline.

1 so so on pipelines

1 aggressively pro pipeline.

The 3 anti pipeline parties has 59 seats out of 338.

The two parties that want at least one more pipeline won 278 seats.

The liberals wom the most seats despite having bought a pipeline.

So its not the reason that the conservatives lost. It was the social reasons that urban canada shunned the CPC. Get a leader that doubles down on anti abortion, marches in gay pride parades,  embraces cannabis and Conservatives would start to make inroads in urban(eastern)  canada.
 

upandatom

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Altair said:
I find this amusing,  because in my opinion, it is rather misplaced.

There are 4 parties in parliament.

3 aggressively anti pipeline.

1 so so on pipelines

1 aggressively pro pipeline.

The 3 anti pipeline parties has 59 seats out of 338.

The two parties that want at least one more pipeline won 278 seats.

The liberals wom the most seats despite having bought a pipeline.

So its not the reason that the conservatives lost. It was the social reasons that urban canada shunned the CPC. Get a leader that doubles down on anti abortion, marches in gay pride parades,  embraces cannabis and Conservatives would start to make inroads in urban(eastern)  canada.

NAIL on the head
We need Fiscal responsibility, lack of corruption, and proven progressive thinking.
 

VinceW

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Altair said:
I find this amusing,  because in my opinion, it is rather misplaced.

There are 5 parties in parliament.

3 aggressively anti pipeline.

1 so so on pipelines

1 aggressively pro pipeline.

The 3 anti pipeline parties has 59 seats out of 338.

The two parties that want at least one more pipeline won 278 seats.

The liberals wom the most seats despite having bought a pipeline.

So its not the reason that the conservatives lost. It was the social reasons that urban canada shunned the CPC. Get a leader that doubles down on anti abortion, marches in gay pride parades,  embraces cannabis and Conservatives would start to make inroads in urban(eastern)  canada.

The anti pipeline anti Alberta party is already in power if it wasn’t for bills C-48 and 69 we wouldn’t be going down this direction now.
Like I mentioned in another post we’re going to change ourselves as much as the East will change for us.
That’s how it is we’re not going to sell out and be afraid of who we are.
 

dapaterson

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Typical Liberal bias at the CBC...

https://www.cbc.ca/news/opinion/neil-macdonald-trudeau-opinion-1.5331427

Listen to what they say about Justin Trudeau: "But what really soured former supporters, I'd submit, was his cynical, patronizing, condescending, arrogant, insulting belief that voters don't deserve a straight answer – that preachy, gauzy, meaningless aphorisms will suffice."
 

Halifax Tar

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Not withstanding the popular vote between the Cons and Libs.  The disparity between the NDP, Greens and Bloc is interesting. 

7.7% of country (Bloc) gained 32 seats, while 15.9% received 24 (NDP) and 6.5% received 3 (Greens). 


open



 

CountDC

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Hamish Seggie said:
Here in lies the problem: Who was JT running against? A memory of Stephen Harper and not the current leader of the Conservatives.

And in my estimation Harper was a good PM.

agree fully and unfortunately the conservatives/Scheer did nothing really to change it.

The best I hoped for was a Conservative minority and NDP holding the candle to them.  I don't see Trudeau propped up by NDP as a good thing.
 

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Halifax Tar said:
Not withstanding the popular vote between the Cons and Libs.  The disparity between the NDP, Greens and Bloc is interesting. 

7.7% of country (Bloc) gained 32 seats, while 15.9% received 24 (NDP) and 6.5% received 3 (Greens). 


open

Popular vote is the most useless statistic metric in Canada.  Why?  Because we have 338 separate elections as opposed to one election.  The Bloc received 7.7% of the vote but that 7.7% was concentrated entirely in one Province.  The Bloc only ran 78 candidates while the Green's ran 338.  Taking this in to consideration, The Bloc's "Vote Efficiency" is basically on par with the Liberals in Quebec and is better than the Conservatives.

A more useful metric would be % of popular vote broken down by region.  I would break it down like this: 

British Columbia - Popular Vote
Prairies (Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba) - Popular Vote
Ontario - Popular Vote
Quebec - Popular Vote
Atlantic/North - Popular Vote

You could also break it down by % of popular vote based on population density which would also be useful.

% popular vote High Pop Density
% Popular vote Medium Pop Density
% Pop vote Low Pop Density

This map does a pretty good job of showing the issues:

Canadian_Federal_Election_2019_-_Results_by_Riding.png


It shows the riding victors but also uses a colour coding system to identify % of popular vote in each individual riding.

The Conservatives got 34% of their popular vote, but you can see from this diagram that if you remove their 60%+ "popular vote" in the Rural Prairies, you can see that the Conservatives did very poorly in the other Regions.

The NDP, Greens, Bloc Quebecois are for all intents and purposes Regional/Special Interest Parties.  The Conservatives judging by the election result, are also a Regional/Rural Party.  None of these parties enjoy widespread support across all regions like the Liberals do.

It would be nice to see some actual logical statistical analysis in our electoral system but the Media and General Public seem very oblivious to it all.

 

Halifax Tar

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Humphrey Bogart said:
Popular vote is the most useless statistic metric in Canada.  Why?  Because we have 338 separate elections as opposed to one election.  The Bloc received 7.7% of the vote but that 7.7% was concentrated entirely in one Province.  The Bloc only ran 78 candidates while the Green's ran 338.  Taking this in to consideration, The Bloc's "Vote Efficiency" is basically on par with the Liberals in Quebec and is better than the Conservatives.

A more useful metric would be % of popular vote broken down by region.  I would break it down like this: 

British Columbia - Popular Vote
Prairies (Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba) - Popular Vote
Ontario - Popular Vote
Quebec - Popular Vote
Atlantic/North - Popular Vote

You could also break it down by % of popular vote based on population density which would also be useful.

% popular vote High Pop Density
% Popular vote Medium Pop Density
% Pop vote Low Pop Density

This map does a pretty good job of showing the issues:

Canadian_Federal_Election_2019_-_Results_by_Riding.png


It shows the riding victors but also uses a colour coding system to identify % of popular vote in each individual riding.

The Conservatives got 34% of their popular vote, but you can see from this diagram that if you remove their 70%+ "popular vote" in the Prairies, you can see that the Conservatives did very poorly in the other Regions.

The NDP, Greens, Bloc Quebecois are for all intents and purposes Regional/Special Interest Parties.  The Conservatives judging by the election result, are also a Regional/Rural Party.  None of these parties enjoy widespread support across all regions like the Liberals do.

It would be nice to see some actual logical statistical analysis in our electoral system but the Media and General Public seem very oblivious to it all.

Thanks tips.  We are all well aware that popular vote means diddley squat.  At this point it should be a sticky on the homepage.

Having said that when we see disparity like that we as a nation have to come to the conclusion that something is wrong with our system.  Thats not slight margins.  Thats big margins.

If I was the NDP, and thank the lord I am not sir, I would only offer support to Liberal platforms in exchange for drastic electoral reform.
 

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Halifax Tar said:
Thanks tips.  We are all well aware that popular vote means diddley squat.  At this point it should be a sticky on the homepage.

Having said that when we see disparity like that we as a nation have to come to the conclusion that something is wrong with our system.  Thats not slight margins.  Thats big margins.

So why bring it up then? Or mention that it is interesting?  I don't think it's interesting at all and it literally has zero bearing on the election.

There is nothing wrong with our Electoral System, in fact, it is working exactly how it has been designed to work AKA "keep a loose Confederation of Independent States, with fundamentally different values, together." 

If anything, the Bloc Quebecois are a great example of how a small Regional Party can use the system we have to their advantage to push their agenda forward and derive maximum benefit.  They've even once formed the official opposition despite running candidates in ONE PROVINCE! 

The Green Party and NDP both waste boatloads of money, manpower & resources trying to campaign nationally when they have no real National support.  Real Green Party support is concentrated on Vancouver Island and in small cantons in the Maritimes.  I would make the argument that campaigning nationally wastes very precious dollars & resources for the Green Party.

If war is politics by other means, why not inverse that and say politics is war by other means?  With this in mind, apply military principles to the conduct of a political campaign, namely:

  • Selection and maintenance of the aim;
  • maintenance of morale;
  • offensive action;
  • surprise;
  • security;
  • concentration of force;
  • economy of effort;
  • flexibility;
  • co-operation; and
  • administration.

I've read that the NDP Electoral Machine is pretty well known for being a disorganized bag of hammers and I can't imagine the Green Party being much better, perhaps they need to fix that and work on applying some of these principles to make the system work for them and not the other way around?

Or they can continue to whinge about how unfair everything is and then they finally squeeze a few extra seats out of an "Improved" Proportional Representation system (which would do them no good because they still don't have widespread support and would still be a disorganized bags of hammers).  On the flip side, Mad Max would surely love Proportional Representation because he would also get some love in the HoC.  Just what we need, extremists from all ends coming to start their own political movements grabbing hold of that 1 or 2% of the vote they would be able to gather up. 

On the bright side, I wouldn't need to watch Youtube anymore to get my daily dose of Antifa vs Proud Boys, I could merely flip on CPAC!



 

dapaterson

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My main complaint with most electoral maps of Canada is that they show physical, not human, geography.  Rocks and trees don't vote, people do; scaling based on population gives a very different visual.

 

Humphrey Bogart

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dapaterson said:
My main complaint with most electoral maps of Canada is that they show physical, not human, geography.  Rocks and trees don't vote, people do; scaling based on population gives a very different visual.

Hence my point on % of vote by population densities. National Popular Vote is the political equivalent of +/- in hockey, it's a useless statistic.
 
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