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CDN/US Covid-related political discussion

kkwd

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Counties that voted Trump have materially lower rates of vaccination, and materially higher rates of death.

Pro-Trump counties now have far higher COVID death rates. Misinformation is to blame

That is a grand conclusion to come to with a random phone survey involving 1,519 people.
 

Remius

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If only folks even came close to telling the truth on phone surveys......they are just another source of fun for some folk. Me included.....
That’s what the margin of error is for. They account for you.

Still does not answer what exactly was wrong with the methodology used in that survey. I’m asking from a point of curiosity.
 

mariomike

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Still does not answer what exactly was wrong with the methodology used in that survey.


Counties that voted Trump have materially lower rates of vaccination, and materially higher rates of death.


National Public Radio (NPR)

Methodology

Vaccination rate data are the rate of vaccination among all people 18 years of age or older, as of Nov. 30. They are from the
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

COVID-19 deaths per 100,000 residents are calculated by dividing the deaths from COVID-19 in a county since May 1 by the county's population. County population data come from the
U.S. Census Bureau's 2020 decennial census. May 1 was chosen as the start date of our analysis because that is roughly the time when vaccines became universally available to adults ages 18 and older. COVID-19 death data is collected by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University and is current as of Nov. 30.

2020 election result data are from
MIT Election Data and Science Lab.

Alaska does not report election results by county-equivalent area, so it is excluded from the analysis. Nebraska is excluded from the analysis because does not report county-level COVID-19 statistics. Hawaii is excluded because it does not report county-level vaccine data. Some counties that have reported no COVID-19 deaths since May 1 may have stopped reporting. These counties generally have very small populations and have a negligible impact on the weighted averages. Erring on the side of caution, we include all data unless it is known that they are in error.

All averages are weighted by county population. The overall average represents the average of the 3,011 counties included in the analysis.

Emily Gurley, Professor of the Practice and Emily Pond, Research Data Analyst, both of Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health helped review our methodology.
 

Colin Parkinson

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That’s what the margin of error is for. They account for you.

Still does not answer what exactly was wrong with the methodology used in that survey. I’m asking from a point of curiosity.
10 out 10 pollsters agree telephone surveys are accurate. At least that what they tell their customers for pay for them.
 

brihard

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You guys are focusing hard on the misinformation part, but seem to be skipping by the fact that county voting results and local COVID cases, hospitalizations, and deaths are all easily tabulated public data.

For a host of reasons, it’s very easy to see logic in an assertion that areas that voted more heavily republican correlate with higher rates of COVID deaths and hospitalizations. There’s a heavy partisan political element to vaccination rates, non-pharmaceutical interventions, public health restrictions, etc. One cannot reasonably expect that to not show up in the data when individual health outcomes are linked to vaccination and public policy.
 
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