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Canada - The Last Super Power

Underway

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They already have and already are. The Huawei debacle comes to mind. Same with the high amount of Troll Factory disinformation that was being pumped into the Freedom Convoy...
These do not even register in geopolitical/strategic terms. Not important in the least. A spat over who can sell what technology where and two Canadians arrested on trumped up charges? And stirring up some minor (in the grand scheme of things) domestic protests? Charles de Gaul did more damage with "Vive le Quebec libre" and France is our ally. We had worse fights with Spain over fish who is also an ally.

We like to assume we don't matter. Our geography and our geology say otherwise. We hold the majority of fresh water in the world, we have some of the largest deposits of uranium and cobalt, as well as lithium. There is still a lot of oil left in the tar sands that will be valuable in manufacturing, even if we aren't fueling cars with it. Even then, shipping routes to Europe are cheaper through the NW Passage than going around. China has already stated desire for route access to what they say is "International waters."

We're only as isolated as we like to assume we are. Others don't play by the same rules.

Yes, geography says otherwise. Which is why we don't matter for these hostile power fantasies. Why try Canada when you can get everything you want from Africa? We are not in anyone sights and likely never will be. Geography is the only thing that matters in geopolitics.

The NWP is much more expensive and a longer trip than the NEP. Which is also ice-free more often. And even if Canada lost "sovereignty" over the NWP is that a tectonic disaster or will things just carry on like they always have. The only reason we claim it as internal waters is so we can control environmental and SAR policy. If it's an international straight it doesn't change too much from a usage perspective, as long as you carry on with peaceful transit. By the time the NWP is ice-free anyways the arctic ocean will be to, and that's an even faster trip completely outside someones juristiction.
So we're Ukraine's for a little bit... until they were revealed to be external. China and Russia have learned how to conduct a kind of asymmetrical warfare we haven't: extortion, exploitation, and "make it look like someone else did it..."
We don't live where Ukraine does. Ukraine always had an external threat for their entire history. The fact they were unable to deal with it because they were a borderline failed state doesn't mean they didn't know it was there. Geography again. Our only external threat is our best friend, which we would lose a war too in about 5min. The rest, they have their own problems to deal with that are far more pressing than boring otherside of the world Canada.
 

GR66

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These do not even register in geopolitical/strategic terms. Not important in the least. A spat over who can sell what technology where and two Canadians arrested on trumped up charges? And stirring up some minor (in the grand scheme of things) domestic protests? Charles de Gaul did more damage with "Vive le Quebec libre" and France is our ally. We had worse fights with Spain over fish who is also an ally.



Yes, geography says otherwise. Which is why we don't matter for these hostile power fantasies. Why try Canada when you can get everything you want from Africa? We are not in anyone sights and likely never will be. Geography is the only thing that matters in geopolitics.

The NWP is much more expensive and a longer trip than the NEP. Which is also ice-free more often. And even if Canada lost "sovereignty" over the NWP is that a tectonic disaster or will things just carry on like they always have. The only reason we claim it as internal waters is so we can control environmental and SAR policy. If it's an international straight it doesn't change too much from a usage perspective, as long as you carry on with peaceful transit. By the time the NWP is ice-free anyways the arctic ocean will be to, and that's an even faster trip completely outside someones juristiction.

We don't live where Ukraine does. Ukraine always had an external threat for their entire history. The fact they were unable to deal with it because they were a borderline failed state doesn't mean they didn't know it was there. Geography again. Our only external threat is our best friend, which we would lose a war too in about 5min. The rest, they have their own problems to deal with that are far more pressing than boring otherside of the world Canada.
I agree that there is little risk of Canada being invaded as long as the USA remains intact and nuclear deterrence is a reality. However, that doesn't mean that Canada can sit back and ignore the world around us. Like it or not we are part of an alliance of like-minded nations that rely on an open and structured world order that will allow less powerful nations like ourselves take full and fair part in the global economy which is the engine for our prosperity.

There are other, powerful nations that don't see the world the way we do and seek to coerce the weaker nations of the world into relationships that are not mutually beneficial. If those nations are allowed to bully their way into control of resources, commerce, information and all those other things on which we rely in our society then we will be greatly impoverished and constrained in our freedoms as a result.

Canada does matter just like Hong Kong matters, Taiwan matters, Ukraine and the Baltic States matter. If the world we can work with gets smaller then we will get smaller as well. That's why it's important for us to both pull our weight internationally and show strength and resolve at home...even against the "insignificant" threats.
 

Colin Parkinson

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I don't see Russia as a threat resource wise, but I do see China as a resource hungry threat. I see them using international law and systems against to break up and grab bit. At the very least to keep the West off balance. Canada is a easy target for non-military action.
 

Mick

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Honestly, we are doing fine. Grand strategy is only needed when you are a superpower or have international responsibilities. I'm happy for Canada to not be a mover and shaker. Just sitting here doing fine and being smug about it. Dealing with the internal family squabbles and not having to worry the country next door wanting to build their fence over the property line.

My family is educated, fed, healthy, and has first-world problems. Great place to live.
Fair point. I'm not under the impression that Canada could be (or should be) a super power - but it would certainly be a refreshing change to have a government able to undertake meaningful, ambitious projects (any portfolio) that could benefit all, instead of short-sighted voter pandering.

I agree, we have it pretty good here.
 

Spencer100

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Bill Morneau doesn't seem to think we are going to go any direction other than down!
Bill's old company just sold to Telus for 2 billion so he's good.

But yes I do think we are headed down. Every decision made leads in that direction.
 

Brad Sallows

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You can grow the pie, divide the pie, or try a blended strategy. Long term, failure to grow the pie means the country falls behind. The world's poor haven't been remarkably lifted out of lower strata of poverty in the past couple of generations by dividing the wealth of developed countries among them.

I don't know precisely what Thatcher had in mind when she claimed "the facts of life are conservative", but it's essentially correct. To crudely borrow Say's Law, you have to produce before you can consume.
 
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